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US Fed’s Fisher says that FED has no plans to move into negative teritory. Wtheck he is talking about? They will cut again or? It seams that Brexit has changes their view on possible rate hike again in 2016 and it’s more possible to see a rate cut now, right!? Well, if the important datas wasn’t good enough for raising the
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Is there any chance from FED to hike today? Based on the latest terrible May employment report and following UK Brexit vote in June, the possibility of that action is very low. The market expectation from FED is to stand on hold until the meeting in July or September. That’s why the message from the FOMC could be that they expect to hike
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19:00 h (London time) > FED Interest Rate Decision!!! > Current 0.5%, Consensus 0.5%. Update 0.5%!!! 19:00 h (London time) > FED’s Monetary Policy Statement!!! There was not much of expectations from FED today, everything stays the same.
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And we can see that from yesterday FED’s decision to leave all rates unchanged. I was sure that the FED will hike yesterday, because all FED’s conditions (data-depended) have been fulfilled. Long-term unemployment forecats is 4.7-5.0%, right where the official unemployment rate is currently, while the Core PCE of 1.7% is already higher than the high range of the FED’s 2016 year
Read moreCan we see another surprise in March after ECB’s from the last week? Why not!? The market reaction was strong, but totaly oposite from the expectation. Whether it was preparing for today’s surprise from FED? It’s possible. If FED raise rates today, the US dollar gain could be limited, if we take a look where it was on end of February.
Read moreIn about 15 minutes, the Federal Open Market Committee will publish the minutes of its January 26./27. meeting. Market players will be focused on the language, as they will search for clues on whether the FED could hike rates again in the next meetings. Mrs. Janet Yellen is aware of the current global problems, which directly are connected with the US economy and growth and
Read moreFOMC meeting is coming up at 19:00 h (GMT). There is no press conference today and that’s why the monetary policy statement will be important for the market. I don’t see the possibility for FED to raise the rates again, not after December’s hike. So, what could be important for this meeting is external global factors as China slowdown in the first place. Possible dovish
Read moreRaising interest rates from FED is supposed to be in April 2015. and was postponed for September, and then again postponed for December. Well, here we are, the judgment day is here, again! The US dollar bulls and bears are ready as they can be, the run could start in a few hours, the second after Ms. Janet Yellen anounnced the
Read moreAs we can see, the US dollar is set up for new hights before FOMC. The bulls are optimistic and they are waiting for FED’s December rate hike hint today. US dollar index is at the new high already 99.86 for now, the high from April is almost reached, and the high from March at 100.38 is near. EUR/USD is testing the previous
Read moreSix FED’s members will have speech today, starting at 14:15 h (GMT) > Bullard, 14:30 h > Yellen, 14:45 h > Lacker, 15:00 h > Stanley Fisher, 15:15 h > Evans, 17:15 h > William Dudley. There is not much moves in the last couple of days, it’s almost booring. Could they drop something bombastic and make a stronger move? Here is
Read moreFED’s meeting coming up today at 18:00 h (GMT). Interest rate decision (official 0,25%) and monetary policy statement, without press conference. I wrote about all the previous FOMC meetings in this year and the possibility to raise interest rates and I must repeat that, I can’t see that will going to happen in this year. There is to many dovish members of the FOMC,
Read moreFED stays at 0,25% and I took that opportunitie at EUR/USD. I am already out, closed my long at 1.1408, but here is how I did it and why, where I have placed my long, target, my SL, everything. I wrote about my expetations with the interest rates for several times, I just waited for the confirmation and do it.
Read moreWill this really be judgment day or just an ordinary day with a lot of expectations? All I can do today is, to repet my article from June 17. I made this DOVE/HAWK/MODERATE chart before last meeting, so that we could more precisely see which members are more or less dovish/hawkish. As you can see, there is more dovish FOMC members with average
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