Can we expect a rate cut, instead of hike from the Fed after Brexit?

mario urlic fed janet-yeallen

US Fed’s Fisher says that FED has no plans to move into negative teritory. Wtheck he is talking about? They will cut again or? It seams that Brexit has changes their view on possible rate hike again in 2016 and it’s more possible to see a rate cut now, right!? Well, if the important datas wasn’t good enough for raising the same in June, now I can’t see the possibility for hike in July based on the same, not after Brexit. The financial markets doesn’t look much worried as I already wrote in this week, is this possibility a reason for the optimism in the stock exchanges? This certainly can be one of the most important reasons for a celebration, instead of collapse caused by fear from Brexit. As I think, the BOE could cut soon and the mutual reaction from the Central Banks is possible. At least, the FED could stay on hold until 2017. But what about the ECB and Mr.Draghi? In my opinion, it’s unlikely that we will see a furder rate cut from the ECB. So, based on this, can we expect from euro to return its strenght in the market? Sure we can if this is serious enough and it looks like it is. What’s you view on this traders?

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4 comments

  • U pogledu na podizanje kamata FED-a tesko je reci sa sigurnoscu,ali kidanje nikako ne ocekujem osim ako bi izasli opet neki losi podaci kao nedavno a to vec ukazuje na nesto drugo,stoga iscekujem nadolazeci petak kao potvrdu za prosli mjesec da je sve O.K. Mnogi anliticari smatraju nakon Brexit-ta da nema podizanja do 2017 nadam se da nece bit tako jer do tada ima mnogo vremena i svasta je moguce na forex.u,a kako ja vec 2-3 godine ocekujem taj paritet ili bar oko 102 smatram da je ovaj Brexit pravi scenario za to,uz malu pomoc FED-a. A ako ne onda je izgledniji scenario 2017-2018 zavrsetak ECB-ovog programa i rast eura ako E.U.ostane stabilna i ne pozele neke druge zemlje izaci,kao sto sam rekao mnogo toga utjece na smjer glavnog para pa cemo vidjeti kako ce to trziste prozvakati i protumaciti….L.P.

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    • Europa se počela opravljati nakon 3 monetarna popuštanja što je normalno, ali US pokazuje jako puno loših podataka osim tržišta rada do sada. Smatram da je dizanje kamate u Prosincu bilo isključivo pod pritiskom javnosti, jer su obećanja o istome trajala 3 godine. No, moje viđenje je da to nije bio dobar potez FED-a i da je ponovno rezanje potrebno. No, sada nakon samo pola godine od dizanja kamate bi im narušilo kredibilitet i malo je izgledno da će to napraviti, tako da možemo očekivati odugovlačenje slijedećeg dizanja kamate. No, manje zbog Brexita koliko zbog njihove ekonomije. Svakako će biti zanimljivo pratiti ponašanje centralnih banaka u nadolazećem periodu. Zato sam ovo i napisao da malo potaknem raspravu. No, malo je toga na mom blogu, hvala na komentaru.

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  • They will not raise the rates now, but will they cut… Hm? Possible, nice thinking and view.

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    • Buy the rumor, sell the news! 🙂

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