FOMC meeting! To be, or not to be!?

yellen

Raising interest rates from FED is supposed to be in April 2015. and was postponed for September, and then again postponed for December. Well, here we are, the judgment day is here, again! The US dollar bulls and bears are ready as they can be, the run could start in a few hours, the second after Ms. Janet Yellen anounnced the final decision. Hike or not!? But, that’s not all. If they raised interest rate, how much points it will be? 5bp, 15bp or even 25bp rate hike? What if they don’t hike at all? Who can tell. The market players are expecting the hike for sure, there is much improvement in the US economy, but the inflation is still not close the ideal 2.0% and that could be the rock in their shoes. It won’t be easy decision and I will not be surprised if they delay ‘the move’ for 2016.

I hope that you all are aware the risk of today’s trading, it could be nasty and very sharp movements all over the market, espacially on gold. That why I don’t suggest trading if you are not experienced enough.

Current interest rate is 0,25%. In my point of view, if the FED raised interest rate to 0,30>0,35% the US dollar will not benefit much in the market, the US dollar bulls could be disappointed in that case, but if they raised more to 0,40>0,50% they could be satisfied, after wich they could boost the US dollar strong in the market. Sure, all the action from Yellen could be priced in already and we could se some surprises in oposite direction. After the decision, the Monetary Policy Statement and the Press Conference will be important as well, especaily if theay don’t raise enough before that. For sure, this could be a very interesting day for the end of the year, let’s see what will Ms. Yellen deliver to the markets for Christmas. She will be ‘Santa Yellen’ or ‘Grinch Yellen’ for the US dollar, what’s your view? Good luck! 😉

FED – Interest rate decision > 19:00 h (GMT)!!!

FED – Monetary policy statement and press conference > 19:30 h (GMT)!!!

Edit 19:10 h, FED raised interest rates for 25bp, from 0,25 to 0,50%!!! 

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s