EUR/USD broke 1.1800, what next!?
The important support at 1.1800/35 is broken yesterday, which held the pair for a month, as I have predicted in my last EUR/USD analysis from August 29. As I pointed then, I sow a resistance at 1.2100/35 and the pair even did’t manage to reach that level, with high at 1.2092 in September, just a few pips bellow.
It’s obvious that the 1.2000 level has become a problem for the ECB, because each time when the EUR/USD aproached there, from the ECB we had a panic talk about the QE reductions and possible delay of the same. Fundamentals are in favor of the euro, but with several warnings from the ECB president Mr.Draghi, the market finaly decided to go lower with the pair. On the other side, Mrs.Yellen stays confident in the US recovery and furder monetary policy tighteninig.
Well, there is the end of 3rdQ and this brake could ment nothing particular in the view of 1.1800 as an important support, but technically we already sow that the level has become a resistance last night. Could buyers return the pair back from this level? Sure they can, but here’s how I see the possible development if the pair continue to fall.
Possible target for sellers could be 1.1620/50, where the serious buyers will wait for sure. If they took over at that level, the pair could bounce up again, forming the ascending triangle on the way back to 1.2000. On the other side, if the pair fall true the 1.1600, this could be a problem for the buyers and it will give the USD an additional strengt, which could lead the pair toward 1.2000 until the end of the year. So, there is two views from me now, the first one is 1.2500 > 1.2700 and the second is this one, but all depens on this techinal levels and possible furder movements. Despite this fall, I remain bullish on each stronger decline.
For now, Mr.Draghi is the finaly the winner, after several fails in his desire to weaken the euro lately.
Following the speech of EUR / USD Yellen last week, the dollar went up from the previous 5 weeks’ prize. Meanwhile, after the German elections and ECB’s statement, EUR was under a lot of pressure. The EUR / USD pair ends at 1.1814, which means it goes down 0.0133 or (- 1.11%) points. Give this week’s support, resistance and pivot point for EUR / USD pair, for your convenience. In addition to this week there is some important news that changes the market trends and for the massive movement Est. So while trading this week, along with Support, Resistance and Pivot Point, keep an eye on these news items carefully.
RBA Rate Decision on Tuesday at 4:30 GMT
US ADP Employment on Wednesday at 11:25 GMT
US Trade Balance on Thursday at 13:30 GMT
US Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday at 13:30 GMT
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Pozdrav Mario,ma kako ti to strucno objasnis jednostavno nemam sto nadodati ,u potpunosti se slazem s analizom jedino se nadam da ce ipak prevladati drugi scenario tj pod pritiskom referenduma u Spanjolskoj ove nedilje nadam se novom gapu u smjeru rasta USD te ako budu dobri rezultati trzista bi nastavili kupovati USD tjekom tog tjedna a jest ostvarila se Dragijeva zelja ali malo kasno jer sada nema dovoljno vremena (mjeseci) da nizi tecaj ude u cjenu za suzavanje programa pa mislim da ce ipak ECB produziti program ( ili nesto iskemijat) e ako tako bude to ce bit odlicna prilika za kupiti EUR-o !!!!!! Veliki pozdrav
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