EUR/USD, it's Greece again!

eur-usd 04.06. II

According to Bloomberg, Greece will not be paying the IMF payment of 312 million euros tomorow. Is that surprise or!? Of course that news like that has ‘disturb’ the EUR/USD on the way up and returned the pair down to the 1.1222 low, erasing the whole gain from today. 1.1300/10 support didn’t manage to hold and the pair pass true easy, let’s see how will buyers react here at 1.1200!? Greece requested to pay only 1,5 million at the end of the month, hm. It could become interesting again with euro, if you ever think it’s booring here. 🙂


  • Something that does seem to be happening is that Greek news now has less impact than it did in the past. The Greek economy is only a very small part of the the very large Eurozone economy which is currently the largest in the world and growing – that is in size as new members in rather than significant increase in GDP. I am not convinced that there will be any catastrophic domino like fallout when (rather than if) Greece defaults. Assuming that there is no catastrophic fallout following Greece’s then I think that there is a strong possibility that the Euro will rally significantly. The uncertainty currently presented by a Greek default I believe is the main factor holding the Euro down. If that uncertainty is removed,I believe that the Euro will rally. However my bullish view of the Euro is tempered by the EUR/USD daily candle yesterday. It turned into a shooting star rather than a gravestone doji. However a shooting star is very bearish. Much depends on the NFP outcome later today. A strong figure will be forcing the hand of the FED to raise interest rates. A weak figure will allow the FED to keep interest rates on hold and facilitate the Euro rally. Whilst the US economy is a good shape, there are too many concerns to make me bullish. With the exception of employment, the US data has been generally disappointing of late. The biggest concern is that consumers are still not spending which will be a long term drag on the economy.Whilst predicting the NFP is a bit of a lottery, I have my doubts that it will be a strong figure. Despite everything I do remain bullish the Euro. However for this to be confirmed we really do need to break the current high of 1.4667. If the low of 1.08191 made on 27th May 2015 is broken, I would be revising my view.

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    • Great review Mr.Miller. I am also bullish here on each decline, but Greece is important on my oppinion. Not because of the possible default, fundamentally I think that will not harm the euro zone significant. But, market could react strong on the news like that, negative for the euro, sure.


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