AUD/USD, trendline is holding Aussie on the way up!

aud-usd 08.04.

After the pair find a new multiyear low at 0.7530/60, it’s trying to recover for the last couple of days, but previous up trendline is holding Aussie on the way up. At this moments the pair is testing H4/MA100 line at 0.7700 and if manage to pass true, trendline is waiting again at 0.7717, after wich comes H4/MA200 at 0.7729. It’s a short way but it’s hard battle for the bulls, let’s see how can they handle this!? Momentum is bullish and 0.0760/70 resistance could be tested!


  • One of my favourite pairs is the EUR/AUD which means I have to always keep a weather eye out on what is going on with AUD/USD. Glen Stevens who is the Governor of the RBA has said that AUD/USD is worth 0.75 and this level has been tested with the low of 0.75331. The pair is currently doing what it does best. It ranges. On 24th March 2015 it hit the top 20 period daily Donchain Channel with a high of 0.79382 and on the 2nd April 2015 it hit the bottom 20 period Donchain Channel with a low of 0.75331. Not the best pair to be currently trading if you are a Turtle.Looking at Ichmoku kinko hyo, the signals on balance are generally short. Tenkan sen is below kijun sen. The price action is below kumo. However chinkou span is somewhat embroiled within the price action which is fairly neutral. Kumo is currently quite thick and in the future retains it thickness though does start to significantly thin. Consequently in summary I think that the short trend maybe at an end with the price action going to range below kumo. Thus in my opinion the only trade on this pair is a range trade which means selling at the base of kumo and buying in the area above 0.75000. At this stage I really do not see much evidence to suggest the start of a long trend. Having said that, AUD/USD as with any Aussie pair does trend nicely. Once started, it will run. However in between the trends, it will range and I think that is where we currently are. Having said that there is of course potential to retest the lows 0.47760 made in April 2001. The US economy is strong and the Australian economy has a myriad of problems compounded by the problems of China which is one of its major trading partners. Though having said that, the Australian economy is basically sound and certainly does not have the problems say of Greece.

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    • As I see the long term chart, if Aussie slips under 0.7500, 0.7000 is possible, the low from March 2006.

      Liked by 1 person

      • I am agree. If it does slip below 0.75000, then I think that it would be safe to assume that the short trend has resumed. My main concern is the positioning of chinkou span on the daily chart. If the price action were to move below 0.75000, then chinkou span would also move to below the current consolidation and possibly be giving a short signal. Ichimoku Kinko Hyo is predominantly a trend following system and can be used to give some very early indications of the start of a new trend. Out of all the systems available, it is my favourite because the trend and myself have a great friendship.

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