Crude Oil; the calm before the storm or?
The crude oil has stuck in a small range for a couple of weeks, but especially in the last 8-9 days. As the Crude oil invetories shows no clear signs in June, same as in May, it’s impossible to predict the possible move based on that data, but the price is still in the hands of the bulls. I wrote in June how May data doesn’t show much…
…same as the June data. We have mixed up/down oil stocks numbers without clear picture for the future development. We know how the OPEC + will probably increase the output for 2 million barellls per day in the beginning of August, but that could be early in my oppinion, it could damage the price recovery furder. Will they do that, we will see.
While the Covid is returned with big numbers recently, especially in the US, but in Australia as well, Melbourne is in lockdown for 6 weeks, it will be interesting to follow the oil price. I expect some moves here to happen any time soon.
Techically, the price was in the hands of the buyers strongly, but they stoped recently with pushing the price up. Falling flag could be the sign how the sellers are preparing for a bigger move. For now, daily up trendline holds every attempt to push the price lower, above I pointed a possible falling flag with uper trend line and maximum Daily MA200 as a possible target before a possible reversal. If the price fall bellow both up trend lines, sellers will have a shot. It’s an interesting game here.
Fundamentaly, I am on the side of the sellers because of all the current and possible future economic problems caused by Covid, technically as well because of the falling flag formation and calm. The only question is, if the sellers took over, will they push the price up at first (SL hunting) or start to sell from here.