EUR/USD, what a day!


I wrote in my FOMC preview, that FED will not hike and that droping of the magic word ‘patience’ will not change anything in the market for the US dollar, and only specific actions in tightening monetary policy will help to boost the US currencie. Otherwise, the most benefit from todays decision will have euro, this is what happend, +400 pips ‘jump’ in a favor of the euro! EUR/USD opened the day at 1.0596 and until the FOMC meeting the pair have already aproach 1.0670/80, the first restistance from March 12. After the decision and during the press conference, the pair tested outer trendline and boosted high after Yellen’s dovish talk, in short, hike rates are not near! The par fly high for more then 400 pips and stopped exactly at the strong daily down trendline, at 1.1000, after wich the sellers and profit taking returned the pair down to support at 1.0810/20. We didn’t see a rebound like this one here for so many months and I was writing about this in last couple of days, the shorts are squeezed! What a day! On the way up, first resistance is placed at 1.0900/10, the previous resistance from March 09. and H4MA100, second at 1.1000!


  • Well I got that one completely wrong and I am licking my wounds. Two accounts have sustained nasty damage though my others are positive following the exercise. However such is trading and one cannot win them all. Anyway after the little sojourn to the north, the price action has bounced – just a small bit – off the levels where it all started. There is an awfully big spike on 8.00 pm GMT 15 minute candle and the question is whether that level is going to be retested. The fact that price action has been unable to get below 1.6158 being the low of the 6.00 pm GMT candle does suggest that a retest may be more than possible.Whilst things are not good in the Eurozone, it maybe that they are not quite as bad as the market has priced in. The German economy still thunders along building Mercedes, BMWs, and VW. As three leading brands they are almost unbeatable. France is reasonable positive in a French sort of way. Greece sadly remains the big challenge and there are no real solutions on the horizon. The country need massive investment including most importantly in education which is simply not happening under the austerity program.


  • Pratim te dugo nekad i komentiram, a ponekad ne mogu vjerovati da ovakav analitičar ima u našoj regiji. Osim što su ti analize savršene imaš nešto posebno u sebi neki jebeni feeling za forex tržište. Bravo Mario i hvala jer sam i ja zbog tebe ušao u buy ovdje na 1.0522 neki dan. Zatvorio sam ga na 1.0867 meni dosta za tri mjeseca i da tebi obavezno platim ručak kad prođeš kroz Zadar. Nadam se da češ uskoro opet posjetiti Mango. 🙂

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